Ethiopia Grapples with Widespread Conflict as Regional Tensions Escalate: An East African Crisis
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia – June 15, 2025 – Ethiopia continues to be engulfed in a complex and multi-faceted civil conflict, with escalating tensions and armed clashes reported across the Amhara, Oromia, and Tigray regions. The ongoing instability, which has roots in historical grievances and recent political shifts, is having a devastating impact on the civilian population, the country’s overall stability, and the wider East African region.
Amhara Region: A Volatile Front
The Amhara region is currently a major flashpoint, gripped by a conflict between federal government forces and the Fano, a loose alliance of ethnic-based militias. This insurgency, which began in April 2023, rapidly escalated into a full-scale uprising by August 2023, with Fano forces reportedly capturing several key cities and strategic areas, including the Ethiopian-Sudanese border town of Metemma, in July Wikipedia – Amhara offensive
The Fano movement, which played a role alongside federal forces during the 2020-2022 Tigray war, felt sidelined by the 2022 peace agreement with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Their discontent was further fueled by the government’s decision in April 2023 to dismantle regional special forces, which many Amharas perceived as a move to leave them vulnerable. defenceWeb – Ethiopia’s civil war: what’s behind the Amhara rebellion?.
Reports indicate heavy fighting in multiple zones of Amhara, with residents reporting airstrikes and drone attacks by the Ethiopian Air Force. In April 2025, a drone strike in the East Gojjam zone reportedly killed over 100 people at a primary school. Wikipedia – Amhara offensive Civilian casualties, mass detentions, torture, and enforced disappearances have been extensively documented by human rights organizations. CIPS-CEPI – Understanding the Conflict in Ethiopia’s Amhara Region.
While the state of emergency in Amhara officially ended in June 2024, some restrictions, including de facto curfews in major cities, remain in place. The government has expressed openness to peace talks, but critics argue that it has avoided meaningful confidence-building measures, such as the release of Amhara political prisoners. defenceWeb – Ethiopia’s civil war: what’s behind the Amhara rebellion?
Oromia: Continued Insurgency and Civilian Attacks
In Oromia, the protracted conflict between the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), referred to by the government as OLF-Shane, and Ethiopian government forces continues. Recent reports from late May to early June 2025 indicate OLA attacks resulting in civilian deaths and abductions in Oromia and Benshangul Gumuz regions. In one incident on June 4th, three civilians, including an Orthodox Christian monk, were killed in Jeju woreda, Arsi zone, followed by looting and abductions. ReliefWeb – Ethiopia situation update (11 June 2025).
Despite a peace agreement signed between some OLA leaders and the Ethiopian government in December 2024, significant parts of Western Oromia remain outside federal government control. Wikipedia – Oromo conflict The OLA insurgency, while not posing an existential threat to the government, continues to cause widespread displacement and insecurity. Wikipedia – OLA insurgency Human rights abuses, including mass detentions and extrajudicial killings by security forces, as well as targeted attacks by the OLA on ethnic Amharas, have been reported. VOA – Ethiopia’s escalating conflicts leave civilians in crossfire.
Tigray: Fragile Peace and Internal Tensions
While the devastating two-year war in Tigray formally ended with the Pretoria Peace Agreement in November 2022, the region’s peace remains fragile due to political instability and internal power struggles within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Vatican News – Resurging tensions in Ethiopia’s Tigray raise concerns of a new conflict.
Tensions have resurfaced between TPLF leader Debretsion Gebremichael and his former deputy, Getachew Reda, who heads the Tigray Interim Administration (TIA). Debretsion has criticized Getachew for the slow implementation of the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (COHA) and called for the TIA’s dissolution. In mid-March 2025, TDF forces loyal to Debretsion reportedly seized key locations, raising fears of renewed large-scale conflict, potentially involving Eritrea. Africa Center for Strategic Studies – Rising Tensions in Tigray Risk Regional Conflict.
The continued presence of Eritrean troops in parts of Tigray, in violation of the COHA, remains a point of contention and concern. Chatham House – Tensions in Tigray could spark war between Ethiopia and Eritrea – disaster must be avoided Humanitarian access remains a challenge, and the region is still grappling with a dire humanitarian crisis exacerbated by funding interruptions. Vatican News – Resurging tensions in Ethiopia’s Tigray raise concerns of a new conflict.
Impact on the Country and East Africa
The widespread conflicts are severely impacting Ethiopia and causing significant ripple effects across the East African region.
Economic Fallout: Economically, the instability has hampered investment, led to currency volatility, and exacerbated a cost-of-living crisis within Ethiopia. Atlantic Council – Civil war, debt, and Ethiopia’s road to recovery The country also lost its beneficiary status under the African Growth and Opportunity Act in 2022 due to the conflicts. This economic strain on Ethiopia, a key regional economy, has a direct impact on trade and investment flows across East Africa.
Humanitarian Crisis and Displacement: Humanitarian concerns are paramount, with millions displaced across Ethiopia. Over 4.4 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) are attributed to internal conflict and insecurity in various regions, including Northern Ethiopia, Amhara, Oromia, and others. Ethiopia also hosts over 823,000 refugees and asylum seekers, predominantly from South Sudan, Somalia, and Eritrea, placing a considerable burden on its resources. UNHCR Global Focus – Ethiopia.
The conflicts in Ethiopia, combined with climate shocks, contribute to a broader humanitarian crisis in the Horn of Africa, where nearly 64 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance. Ethiopia, along with Sudan, accounts for two of the world’s five largest humanitarian crises. OCHA – The Greater Horn of Africa: Humanitarian Key Messages (February 2024) The displacement of people within Ethiopia and across its borders strains the resources of neighboring countries like Sudan, Kenya, and Uganda, which are already hosting large refugee populations. European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations – “We left everything behind and started running”: voices away from home in Uganda, South Sudan and Ethiopia.
Regional Security and Proxy Conflicts: Ethiopia’s internal conflicts have significant regional security implications. The renewed tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea, particularly over Ethiopia’s stated desire for Red Sea access, could escalate into a wider regional conflict, potentially drawing in other states like Somalia and Djibouti. Modern Diplomacy – Ethiopia on the Brink: Abiy Ahmed’s Risky Power Play and the Growing Threat of War This could destabilize an already volatile Horn of Africa, creating opportunities for extremist groups like Al-Shabaab to gain ground. Atlantic Council – Nine months later: The regional implications of the Ethiopia-Somaliland MOU.
Ethiopia’s role as a major contributor to peacekeeping missions in the region, particularly in Somalia, has also been impacted, raising concerns about a potential power vacuum that could be exploited by militant groups. Al Jazeera – Ethiopia’s war is threatening domestic and regional stability.
The ongoing dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) with Egypt and Sudan further complicates regional dynamics. While not directly linked to the current civil conflicts, the dam issue adds another layer of geopolitical tension to Ethiopia’s external relations, which could be exacerbated by its internal instability. Arab News – Ethiopia’s civil war a threat to regional security.
The multifaceted conflicts in Ethiopia represent a significant challenge to regional stability and require sustained national and international efforts for a lasting peaceful resolution, to prevent further destabilization of the already fragile East African landscape.
Recommendations for Addressing the Ethiopian Conflict and its Regional Impact
Given the complex and far-reaching nature of the conflict in Ethiopia, a multi-pronged approach is essential for both national stability and regional peace. Here are key recommendations, incorporating insights from international bodies:
For the Ethiopian Government and Regional Actors:
- Inclusive Dialogue and Political Resolution: Prioritize genuine and inclusive political dialogue involving all major stakeholders, including representatives from Amhara, Oromia, and Tigray, as well as other marginalized groups. A comprehensive national dialogue could address historical grievances, power-sharing arrangements, and the future of regional autonomy.
- Adherence to Peace Agreements:Fully implement existing peace agreements, particularly the Pretoria Peace Agreement concerning Tigray. This includes the withdrawal of all external forces, disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) processes, and ensuring unhindered humanitarian access. The African Union (AU) has emphasized the importance of adhering to the Permanent Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (COHA) between the TPLF and the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia. Press Statement: Following the situation in the Tigray Region, Ethiopia-African Union.
- Protection of Civilians and Accountability: Uphold human rights and international humanitarian law. This means ensuring the protection of civilians from all warring factions, investigating and prosecuting those responsible for atrocities, and establishing mechanisms for redress for victims. The UN Human Rights Council has called for accountability for human rights violations and abuses in Ethiopia. International community must ensure accountability and protection for civilians caught in Ethiopia conflict, UN commission says final report | OHCHR.
- Humanitarian Access and Aid Delivery: Facilitate immediate and unfettered humanitarian access to all conflict-affected areas. This requires removing bureaucratic impediments and ensuring the safety of aid workers, as millions are in desperate need of food, medicine, and shelter.
- Regional Cooperation on Security: East African nations should enhance cooperation on border security and intelligence sharing to prevent the spillover of conflict and the proliferation of illicit arms. Regional bodies like IGAD could play a more robust mediation role.
- AU Leadership: The African Union should continue to take a leading role in mediation efforts. The Role of the African Union in the Mediation Process in Ethiopia – ACCORD.
For International Community and Partners:
- Sustained Diplomatic Engagement: International partners, including the African Union, United Nations, and key global powers, should maintain sustained diplomatic pressure on all parties to the conflict, urging for de-escalation, dialogue, and accountability.
- Increased Humanitarian Funding: Substantially increase humanitarian funding to address the immense needs within Ethiopia and in neighboring countries hosting Ethiopian refugees. This is crucial for preventing further suffering and regional destabilization.
- EU Support: The EU should engage in diplomatic efforts and support de-escalation measures. Back from the brink: How European support could prevent another Ethiopia-Eritrea war.
- Support for Peacebuilding and Recovery: Invest in long-term peacebuilding initiatives, including reconciliation programs, trauma support, and reconstruction efforts in affected regions. Support for economic recovery and job creation is vital to address root causes of instability.
- Conditional Engagement: Link assistance and engagement to tangible progress on human rights, peace talks, and humanitarian access. This can incentivize positive changes from all parties involved.
- Addressing Root Causes: Support efforts to address the underlying drivers of conflict, such as ethnic tensions, resource competition, governance deficits, and the impacts of climate change which exacerbate vulnerabilities.
Addressing Ethiopia’s complex civil conflicts requires concerted efforts from all stakeholders, both within and outside the country, to prevent further devastation and ensure a stable and prosperous future for Ethiopia and the wider East African region.
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