Question Based High Engagement Can The Horn Of Africa Afford Another War Ethiopia And Eritrea Teeter On The Brink Report Finds
Focus on the Core Conflict/Causation From Allies to Adversaries: Red Sea Access and Tigray Dynamics Fuel Looming Ethiopia-Eritrea Conflict
This report is based on analysis from Foreign Policy magazine, underscoring the severe deterioration of relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara.
The Horn of Africa is facing a rapidly escalating risk of a renewed, catastrophic war between Ethiopia and Eritrea, according to a recent analysis published in Foreign Policy magazine. The report warns that shifting political dynamics in Ethiopia’s Tigray region and the growing chasm between the two nations’ leaders are eroding the fragile “balance of uncertainty” that has maintained a tenuous peace.
“For more than a year, another catastrophic war between Eritrea and Ethiopia has appeared imminent,” the U.S.-based publication wrote, citing escalating rhetoric, military mobilizations, and seemingly irreconcilable differences between Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki as ominous signs.
Key Drivers of Rising Tension
Relations between the former close allies, who signed a peace deal in 2018, have severely soured since the fallout of the Tigray war. The primary flashpoints now revolve around Ethiopia’s push for sea access and the volatile political situation in Tigray.
- Ethiopia’s Maritime Ambition: Ethiopian officials have, in recent months, openly questioned the legitimacy of Eritrea’s 1993 independence, which left Ethiopia landlocked. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has repeatedly emphasized Ethiopia’s “existential” need to regain sea access, with growing speculation over military deployments near the Eritrean Red Sea port of Assab, which Addis Ababa has expressed interest in accessing. Eritrea, conversely, has accused Ethiopia of plotting to undermine its “hard-won independence and sovereignty” to gain control of its ports, with Eritrean official Ghebremeskel stating Addis Ababa’s mantra revolves around acquiring sovereign access to the sea “through legal means if possible, or military force if necessary.”
- Political Flux in Tigray: The Foreign Policy report specifically highlighted new regional dynamics involving Tigray as an accelerant to the conflict. Growing proximity between Tigray’s leadership and Eritrean authorities complicates the situation. Both Addis Ababa and Asmara are reportedly “courting influence” in Tigray, trying to balance fragile political interests while simultaneously opposing the establishment of a TPLF-controlled corridor to Sudan.
- Accusations of Aggression: Both governments have engaged in public accusations. Ethiopia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs recently sent a letter to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres accusing Asmara of colluding with a hardline faction of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) to “wage war” and of “funding, mobilising and directing armed groups” in the Amhara region. The TPLF rejected these claims, urging international efforts to implement the Pretoria peace deal fully.
Uncertainty and the Call for Dialogue
Despite the high tensions, Foreign Policy noted that neither side has initiated war, largely due to mutual doubts over their ability to prevail, given the unpredictable and costly nature of their past conflicts along the 620-mile frontier. Uncertainty also extends to the international environment, where the reactions of “critical international actors, including the United States and Gulf states,” remain hard to forecast.
Addis Standard, another prominent publication, has consistently echoed these warnings, with an editorial titled “No Exit Through War Ethiopia and Eritrea Must Step Back from the Brink.” The publication emphasizes that the Horn of Africa cannot afford another militarized confrontation, particularly one stemming from the dispute over Red Sea access.
The consensus from analysts is that urgent action is required to prevent a renewed war, whose outcome would be “wildly uncertain” and could also potentially entangle neighboring Sudan.
- Path to De-escalation: The Foreign Policy report concluded that the risks of war can only be sustainably reduced “by de-escalating tensions between Addis Ababa and Tigray, and finding mutually agreeable pathways to enhance Ethiopian port access.” Reviving dialogue between Ethiopia’s federal government and the Tigray authorities is viewed as an essential first step.
The final word from analysts is stark: “the Horn of Africa, and the world, cannot afford another Eritrea-Ethiopia war.”
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