Internal Strife And Geopolitical Maneuvers Threaten Stability In Ethiopia
A Fragile Peace Unravels: Ethiopia on Edge as Internal Tensions and Regional Rivalries Mount
Ethiopia, a nation still recovering from a devastating civil war, is facing renewed political and security challenges that threaten to unravel the fragile peace established by the 2022 Pretoria Agreement. A confluence of internal power struggles, persistent regional insurgencies, and escalating tensions with neighboring countries has created a volatile environment, raising alarms among analysts and international organizations.
The central issue driving this instability is the simmering conflict in the northern Tigray region, which has been exacerbated by a power struggle within the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). According to a recent report by the International Crisis Group, a faction led by former Tigray interim president Getachew Reda is losing control to a more hardline group. This internal rivalry has been linked to recent skirmishes and has raised fears of a renewed conflict, with the TPLF allegedly tightening its grip on power. The situation is further complicated by the continued presence of Eritrean troops in parts of Tigray, an unresolved issue from the 2020-2022 war that was not fully addressed by the peace deal.
Beyond Tigray, the federal government under Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is struggling to contain ongoing insurgencies in the Amhara and Oromia regions. The Council on Foreign Relations notes that in Amhara, the government’s counter-insurgency campaign has failed to produce decisive results against the resilient Fano militias. Concurrently, clashes with the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) have escalated in Oromia, with reports of increased abductions and fighting spreading closer to the capital, Addis Ababa.
Adding to the domestic turmoil are regional diplomatic crises. Ethiopia’s pursuit of Red Sea port access, formalized by a controversial Memorandum of Understanding with the self-declared state of Somaliland, has drawn a strong rebuke and threats of war from Somalia. This geopolitical maneuvering has also strained relations with Eritrea, with both nations reportedly mobilizing forces along their shared border. The International Crisis Group warns that this growing enmity could lead to another full-scale war, with both countries wary of the other’s intentions regarding control over key strategic areas.
Amidst these security challenges, Ethiopia’s economy is under immense strain. According to Al Jazeera the country is grappling with high inflation, a depreciating currency, and a significant funding gap after cuts to international aid. This economic hardship has sparked widespread discontent, including strikes by doctors seeking better pay, as documented in the Al Jazeera report. Furthermore, the recent and unexpected resignation of Ethiopia’s central bank governor, Mamo Mihretu, has added to the economic uncertainty, as reported by Semafor. Mihretu was a key figure in Prime Minister Abiy’s economic reforms, and his departure comes at a critical time for the nation’s financial stability.
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