President Ismail Omar Guelleh. Photo EPC
Djibouti at a Tipping Point: Guelleh’s Sixth Term Bid Ignites Succession Crisis and Tribal Tensions Ahead of 2026 Polls
NAIROBI – As Djibouti prepares for its presidential elections scheduled for April 2026, the nation is being rocked by a severe political crisis emanating from within the ruling structure. At the heart of the turmoil is President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh’s apparent intent to amend the constitution to seek a sixth term, despite being 77 years old and exceeding the former legal age limit of 75.
The underlying instability is compounded by deep fissures emerging among the ruling elite over his eventual successor, threatening the country’s delicate political and tribal balance.
Succession Speculation Sparks Elite Rift
The growing internal disagreements became impossible to ignore in September following the high-profile resignation of Alexis Mohamed Gueldon, a long-time senior advisor and the President’s official international spokesperson. Gueldon publicly cited the country’s “democratic regression” and “nepotistic practices,” directly challenging Guelleh’s move to eliminate age limits.
President Guelleh faces a twofold challenge:
- Constitutional Hurdle: At 77, he is constitutionally ineligible, prompting moves to amend the rule he himself introduced in 2010 (which abolished term limits but set the age cap). Recent reports indicate the parliament has already voted to remove this age restriction, a move that opens the door for him to run again.
- Succession Dilemma: Identifying a successor is critical to preserving the influence of the ruling Mamasan clan. Speculation is rife that the President is grooming his stepson, Naguib Abdullah Kamil, who is affiliated with the Afar community.
This potential handover to Kamil is seen as a major risk, as it could intensify ethnic polarization. The dominant al-Issa tribe elite reportedly view Kamil as a threat to their historical privileges, potentially leading them to block his ascent by pushing for Guelleh to remain in power or backing an alternative figure from within their own clan, like the ambitious former advisor Gueldon.
Three Potential Trajectories for the Regime
Political analysts anticipate three main paths for the ruling system in the lead-up to the election:
- 1. Constitutional Extension for Guelleh: This scenario is considered plausible due to Guelleh’s extensive regional and international network. While it preserves the elite’s interests and the status quo, it risks severe erosion of credibility, increased public discontent, and medium-term institutional fragility.
- 2. Engineered, Disciplined Transition: This would involve a negotiated process led by Guelleh to install an agreed-upon successor, possibly Kamil or another al-Issa/Mamasan figure. The key obstacle remains forging consensus and managing factional rivalries.
- 3. Electoral Contest Controlled by an Issa Candidate: If the al-Issa elite feel the power balance is shifting too far toward the Afar (via Kamil), they may push for elections to ensure an Issa candidate secures victory, thus safeguarding their post-Guelleh influence. This path carries the risk of deepening elite confrontation, potentially involving security forces, especially given past allegations of electoral fraud.
Geopolitical Stakes: Stability vs. Strategic Interest
Djibouti’s political maneuvering is under intense scrutiny from international and regional powers due to its unique strategic importance as a military hub for the US, China, France, and Japan, overlooking the critical Bab al-Mandab Strait.
Foreign allies have long tolerated Guelleh’s authoritarian practices in exchange for the superficial stability he maintained. However, an uncontrolled succession crisis could destabilize the entire region and complicate the strategic decision-making of these powers.
Tensions, such as those straining the US position following the establishment of the Chinese base in 2017, could intensify, leading players like Washington to explore alternatives like bolstering ties with Kenya or Somaliland.The decisions made in the coming months – whether to extend Guelleh’s rule or manage a transition will be pivotal. International partners, particularly France, are expected to use diplomatic engagement to encourage a peaceful, if controlled, transfer of power, recognizing that external support for the current structure may no longer guarantee its endurance.
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