Ethiopians Account For 70 Percent Of Undocumented Migrant Arrests In Kenya
Conflict and Economic Strain Drive Surge in Ethiopian Migration to Kenya
NAIROBI – A new security audit by the Kenyan government reveals that Ethiopian nationals now constitute the vast majority of undocumented immigrants apprehended within its borders. According to the Annual Report on the State of National Security tabled in Parliament by President William Ruto, Ethiopians accounted for over 70% of all illegal immigration arrests between September 2024 and August 2025.
The findings underscore a deepening humanitarian and mobility crisis in the Horn of Africa, as domestic instability pushes thousands to seek refuge or transit through Kenya.
The Data: A Comparative Look
Out of 953 total arrests of undocumented immigrants recorded by Kenyan authorities during the reporting period, 670 were Ethiopian nationals. This represents 70.3% of the total, dwarfing the figures for other regional neighbors including Somalis, Burundians, and Eritreans.
| Nationality | Number of Arrests | Percentage of Total |
| Ethiopian | 670 | 70.3% |
| Others (Somali, Burundian, Eritrean, etc.) | 283 | 29.7% |
Internal Displacement and “Push Factors”
The report identifies a direct correlation between the surge in migration and the volatile security situation within Ethiopia. Kenyan authorities specifically cited:
- Regional Instability: Ongoing kinetic conflicts in the Amhara and Oromia regions have displaced thousands, forcing many to look south toward the Kenyan border.
- The Tigray Stagnation: The report warns of “rising political tensions” in Tigray, noting that the slow implementation of the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (COHA) has created a vacuum of uncertainty, increasing the risk of renewed conflict.
- Economic Disparities: Beyond security, President Ruto noted that Kenya’s “relatively more advanced socio-economic conditions” serve as a pull factor for those seeking education and employment amid Ethiopia’s staggering inflation and infrastructure damage.
Kenya as a Transit Corridor
The document highlights Kenya’s role not just as a destination, but as a critical transit hub for irregular migration routes stretching from the Great Lakes to the Horn of Africa.
However, this “hub” status brings significant national security anxieties for Nairobi. The report warns of “cross-border risks,” including:
- Militant Infiltration: Specific concerns were raised regarding the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and the potential for insurgent elements to cross into Kenyan territory.
- Illicit Trafficking: A rise in the smuggling of small arms and narcotics often mirrors these irregular migration paths.
Diplomatic and Security Response
Despite the rising arrest numbers, the bilateral relationship remains focused on security cooperation. Kenya continues to leverage the Special Status Agreement (SSA) with Addis Ababa to conduct joint border operations. According to President Ruto, these coordinated efforts have been instrumental in curbing insurgent activities along the porous border regions.
As Ethiopia grapples with internal dialogue and reconstruction, the figures from Nairobi serve as a stark reminder that the country’s internal frictions have become a defining challenge for regional stability.
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