Ethiopians Top Kenyas Arrest List As US Court Delivers Landmark Reprieve For South Sudanese TPS Holders
Ethiopians Top Kenya’s Arrest List as US Court Delivers Landmark Reprieve for South Sudanese TPS Holders
NAIROBI/BOSTON – A series of developments across two continents this week has highlighted the escalating instability in the Horn of Africa and the precarious legal standing of its citizens abroad. While Kenya reports a massive surge in undocumented Ethiopian migrants, a U.S. federal court has stepped in to halt the deportation of South Sudanese nationals, setting a potential precedent for thousands of Ethiopians facing a similar fate in February.
1. The Regional Influx: Kenya as a Crisis Point
In Nairobi, the Annual Report on the State of National Security presented by President William Ruto reveals that Ethiopian nationals now account for 70.3 percent of all undocumented immigrant arrests in Kenya.
According to the report, between September 2024 and August 2025, 670 out of 953 arrests involved Ethiopians. Authorities attribute this surge to “prolonged conflicts” in the Amhara and Oromia regions, as well as stalled peace implementations in Tigray. The report warns that this movement creates “cross-border risks,” including the potential infiltration of militant groups like the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA).
2. The U.S. Legal Shield: A Reprieve for South Sudan
Simultaneously, in the United States, U.S. District Judge Angel Kelley in Boston issued an emergency order on December 30, 2025, blocking the Trump administration’s attempt to terminate Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for South Sudanese citizens.
The administration had moved to end the program for 232 South Sudanese beneficiaries, claiming conditions in their home country had improved. However, the court’s administrative stay allows these individuals to remain and work in the U.S. indefinitely while the legal challenge proceeds. Advocates argued it was “arbitrary” to end protections while the U.S. State Department maintains a “Level 4: Do Not Travel” warning for South Sudan.
3. The Ethiopia Connection: A Blueprint for 2026
The South Sudan ruling has significant implications for the 5,000 Ethiopian nationals in the U.S. whose TPS was officially terminated by the Department of Homeland Security on December 12, 2025.
Legal experts suggest that the “South Sudan Blueprint” challenging the government for ignoring its own travel warnings and the reality of regional conflicts will be the primary strategy used to fight the February 13, 2026, expiration date for Ethiopians.
| Region/Group | Current Status | Key Driver of Displacement |
| Ethiopians (in Kenya) | 70% of undocumented arrests | Conflicts in Amhara, Oromia, and Tigray tensions. |
| South Sudanese (in U.S.) | Protected by Court Stay | Civil war risks and Level 4 travel advisories. |
| Ethiopians (in U.S.) | TPS Ends Feb 13, 2026 | Humanitarian crisis and regional instability. |
The Legal Shield vs. The Humanitarian Reality
The current landscape reveals a stark contradiction between security-driven immigration enforcement and the lived reality of those fleeing conflict. While the Boston court’s ruling offers a temporary reprieve for South Sudanese migrants, it highlights a broader “policy paradox”: governments are moving to revoke legal protections even as their own security agencies warn of worsening conditions in the migrants’ home countries.
For the thousands of Ethiopians currently in legal limbo both those crossing into Kenya and those awaiting the February TPS deadline in the U.S. the coming months will be defined by a race between slow-moving peace processes and fast-acting deportation policies. The South Sudan stay serves as a vital precedent, but without a fundamental shift in the security conditions of Amhara and Oromia, the cycle of irregular migration is likely to intensify regardless of court orders or border patrols.
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